Rare Earth Rush

Africa Insights AI
🌍 AFRICA INSIGHTS WEEKLY   |   December 18, 2025   |   Issue #35
📈 THIS WEEK'S KEY INSIGHTS
  • Major infrastructure investments accelerating across the continent with over $10 billion in PPP approvals and renewable energy awards
  • Private capital increasingly driving Africa's energy transition, from South Africa's 890MW solar awards to Nigeria's $4.29bn port and power projects
  • Strategic supply chain diversification gaining momentum as African rare earth projects attract US-backed investment amid China trade tensions

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🏗️ SPOTLIGHT: Infrastructure & Development

South Africa Awards $955M Solar Portfolio, Cementing Regional Renewables Leadership

Solar projects in South Africa
The Development:South Africa's REIPPPP Bid Window 7 has selected four solar PV projects totalling 890 MW with estimated investment of $955 million, led by Red Rocket South Africa (three projects) and Engie (one project). These awards advance the IRP 2025's ambitious roadmap targeting tens of gigawatts of new renewables through 2039.
The Scale:The 890MW package represents significant institutional capital mobilization for utility-scale solar, with the broader REIPPPP programme having delivered 6.56 GW in commercial operation as of October 2025. Bid Window 7 was designed to procure up to 5,000 MW, creating a multi-year investment pipeline.
Business Impact:This allocation signals attractive deal sizes for infrastructure funds and project financiers while demonstrating strong policy support through state-led procurement. However, persistent grid constraints and transmission bottlenecks remain material execution risks that could delay commercial operation dates.
Investment Opportunity:
  • Infrastructure Funds: Large-scale renewable projects with predictable government offtake and strong bankability.
  • Technology Providers: Growing emphasis on solar-plus-storage and grid infrastructure creates opportunities in BESS and transmission upgrades.
  • Local Partnerships: Requirements for local content and community engagement favor established South African developers.
  • Hybrid Solutions: Integrated offerings combining PV, storage, O&M, and merchant offtake structures differentiate bids and enhance revenue resilience.
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💰 INVESTMENT WATCH

Nigeria Approves $4.29B PPP Infrastructure Megadeals

Infrastructure projects in Nigeria

Nigeria's Federal Executive Council has approved three transformative PPP projects worth N6.43tn ($4.29bn), including the $2.27bn Bakassi Deep Seaport, $1.14bn Port of Ondo Deep Seaport, and $878.1m Katsina-Ala 460MW Hydropower Plant. All projects are fully financed by private investors, representing the second major batch approved in December and bringing 2025 approvals to over 13 projects under President Tinubu's infrastructure push.

These greenfield maritime and energy assets offer high-yield opportunities through user fees and long-term concessions, addressing Nigeria's $100bn annual infrastructure deficit. The Bakassi and Ondo seaports will create Free Trade Zones and decongest existing ports, while the hydropower plant adds critical renewable baseload capacity to the national grid.

Investment Implications:The 13+ PPP pipeline reflects strengthened regulatory frameworks by ICRC and growing FDI confidence despite fiscal constraints, creating opportunities for project finance and equity participation across maritime, power, health, and aviation sectors.
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🌐 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES

Pensana Secures $100M for Angola Rare Earths Amid Supply Chain Shift

Rare earth mining in Angola

Pensana PLC has secured a $100 million equity investment to advance its Longonjo rare earths project in Angola, positioning the company as a key non-Chinese supplier targeting 2027 commercial production. The project, one of the world's largest undeveloped rare earth deposits, will produce materials for over 10,000 tonnes of permanent magnets annually amid U.S. bans on Chinese rare earths in defense systems and impending tariffs.

Africa is emerging as a critical rare earths hub, potentially supplying 9-10% of global output by 2029-2030. Angola ranks as Africa's second-most improved mining jurisdiction, with the Longonjo project benefiting from $1.7 billion in Lobito Corridor investments and support from the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund.

Action Items:Companies should secure offtake agreements with non-Chinese producers to hedge 2026 tariffs and 2027 defense bans, while monitoring Pensana's upcoming Nasdaq listing and Q1 2026 drilling program that could extend the project's 20-year mine life.
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📊 QUICK HITS

Military-Led Sahel States Launch $895M Investment Bank

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have launched the BCID-AES regional investment bank with $895M initial capital to fund infrastructure, energy, and agriculture projects, leveraging their mineral wealth for financial autonomy post-ECOWAS withdrawal.

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EBRD Makes First Sub-Saharan Investment in Benin Electrification

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development committed €30 million to Benin's rural electrification program, connecting 120,000 households across 750 villages and marking EBRD's entry into sub-Saharan Africa infrastructure financing.

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Chinese Solar Panel Imports to Africa Surge 60% to 15GW

African imports of Chinese solar panels jumped 60% to approximately 15 GW in the 12 months to June 2025, with 20 countries setting new import records, accelerating renewable energy deployment while highlighting supply chain concentration risks.

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